Any Expectations

Writing about the minor leagues, for me, takes a blend of unimpeded optimism tempered like eggs with the bitter honesty of realism.

Take, for example, a 23 year old second baseman who (as of this second) has one more home run than year on this earth. He's walking 11.9% of the time, and striking out 22.1%, the latter of which is not insignificant, but appears much nicer when placed next to the K% (30%!) of his teammates. He has moderately decent defense at second base. The 24 homers and .254 BA look okay, and promotable, and even supportable, except that these numbers are coming out of class-A Hickory.



Now, I want to believe. I want there to somehow be a place for Rua (because this is obviously who we are discussing today) on either the Myrtle Beach or the Frisco squad. I want him to be a magical late blooming unicorn of a hitter who offers real power at a usually power-less position, and I want this to happen soon and I want him to not be exploited by higher-level pitching, and...I'm an optimist, especially where baseball is concerned, but reality must be considered.

23 is old. Not in real life, obviously, but for the South Atlantic (A) League, especially in a young system like Texas'. Some national writers have Rua written off as an organizational dude, this early, this late. He hasn't been promoted yet, most likely because neither second basemen above him are failing spectacularly  and they're both younger than he is. From a farm perspective, this is a brilliant thing. Talent, young talent, at levels, blocking a guy in A ball? From a narrative (there that is, again) perspective, this is a slightly less grand thing.

It also doesn't help that Rua looks very old compared to his very young teammates. Even in a league not known for grizzled veterans, Hickory barely touches the median age. The core five who came from rookie league together are all either 18 or 19, and the catcher known on Twitter alternately as #ElOso and #TheLegend just turned 20. But, sometimes, age is an illusion.

My particular mix of positivity and negativity chooses to believe that there's the possibility of Rua not failing against better pitching. That 23 is not too old for success, and that even if he hangs around in Hickory for the full season, his talent isn't finished. After all, the median age in AA is 24. If he heads there after spring training next year, he won't be old anymore.

Of course, none of my tempered opinions could be correct. I think he's ready for better pitching. He could not be. That's the thing about the minor leagues-it's all possibility. Guaranteed prospects fail all the time, and only some of them can be fixed by eye-drops or higher tees.  

There are expectations, and then there is reality.


Thanks to @stoltz_baseball, @tepidp, and @scottrlucas. Pre-read by Erick Martin, as usual.