So, here it is!
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Friday, May 11, 2012
On CJ Wilson: The Free Market and "Jokes."
Tonight is the first night that CJ Wilson will pitch in Rangers Ballpark in Arlington since departing the Texas Rangers for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The reception from the crowd is predicted to be chilly, with about a 100% chance of boos.
I, personally, have mixed feelings on the subject of CJ Wilson. I cannot be angry at him for leaving, simply because the fact is that the Rangers were not going to pay him to stay. I cannot be mad at him for going to the Angels, because what player doesn't want to be on what is projected to be a contending team. His numbers don't allow me to proclaim that he "sucked," because, quite simply, he didn't and doesn't. On the other hand, some of his actions have made me glad that the Rangers did not want to pay him, and that he's no longer on the team, but I will not deny that no small part of that is because we now live in the age of Yu Darvish and I don't have to be worried about that spot in the rotation.
CJ Wilson was a very good pitcher, and not a bad teammate, for the time that he was here. In fact, a great deal of his former teammates still say he's a friend. He gave us 7 really good seasons, and was consistent before the Rangers had consistent pitching. Because he was so good, his price tag rose accordingly. I can't judge him for that. Anyone who is putting out quality work has the ability to ask for what they feel they deserve. Wilson felt that he deserved a number that the Texas Rangers (who already had their eyes on Yu Darvish) did not feel comfortable paying. There's nothing wrong there. That's business. That's modern baseball.
Things begin to get a bit complicated when you take a look at what happened off the field. There was an incident where CJ Wilson tweeted out (as an apparent "prank") Texas Rangers C/1B Mike Napoli's phone number. There were the quotes about the off season, and his former team that put some fans on edge. Is him being a jerk enough reason to boo him? I'm not sure. A lot of professional athletes are also professional jerks, and being a jerk is not an automatic ticket to boo-ing. The one thing that diminishes him for me is the "ball flipping" incident. That sign of disrespect is not enough for me to boo him, but was enough for me to not be heartbroken (or even particularly sad) when he left the team. Was it stupid? Yes. Did he probably regret it the second he did it? Most likely. Did it have any real effect on him going to the Angels? No. When any "star" athlete leaves a team, there is always going to be a reaction, a backlash, if you will. The fact that he went to the division rivals doesn't help, but in my eyes, that doesn't black out the fact that he left because the Texas Rangers let him.
At this point, you're probably thinking something along the lines of "Well, they didn't want to pay him the selfish amount of money he wanted! He wasn't that good! He thought he was worth too much!"
Professional athletes, as a whole, are selfish. You can't be a pro athlete without being selfish, to some degree. I'm not saying this as a condemnation, but simply as a statement of fact. As charismatic, as giving, as community-oriented as a player may be, if they are in an elite group, then they are still making more money than I would ever hope to see. Again, CJ Wilson (and his agent, and whatever sources he consulted) felt that he was worth more than the Rangers were willing to pay. This is something that happens all the time. Josh Hamilton (a perennial fan favourite) is most likely going to ask for an extremely large amount of money come contract negotiations. Will the fans boo him if/when he plays at RBiA not in a Rangers uniform? Only time will tell, but I have a feeling the answer would be no.
Personally, I hope CJ Wilson loses tonight. I hope the Rangers' offense crushes every single pitch he throws and thus works to the Angels' provenly awful bullpen early. Do I hope this because he's CJ Wilson? No. I want this because it's a game, and I'm a fan. I want my team to win.
Boo CJ Wilson, or not. That doesn't change the fact that this is one of the more stellar pitching matchups that we, as fans, will see all season. No matter what the crowd does, this will be a fantastic game.
I, personally, have mixed feelings on the subject of CJ Wilson. I cannot be angry at him for leaving, simply because the fact is that the Rangers were not going to pay him to stay. I cannot be mad at him for going to the Angels, because what player doesn't want to be on what is projected to be a contending team. His numbers don't allow me to proclaim that he "sucked," because, quite simply, he didn't and doesn't. On the other hand, some of his actions have made me glad that the Rangers did not want to pay him, and that he's no longer on the team, but I will not deny that no small part of that is because we now live in the age of Yu Darvish and I don't have to be worried about that spot in the rotation.
CJ Wilson was a very good pitcher, and not a bad teammate, for the time that he was here. In fact, a great deal of his former teammates still say he's a friend. He gave us 7 really good seasons, and was consistent before the Rangers had consistent pitching. Because he was so good, his price tag rose accordingly. I can't judge him for that. Anyone who is putting out quality work has the ability to ask for what they feel they deserve. Wilson felt that he deserved a number that the Texas Rangers (who already had their eyes on Yu Darvish) did not feel comfortable paying. There's nothing wrong there. That's business. That's modern baseball.
Things begin to get a bit complicated when you take a look at what happened off the field. There was an incident where CJ Wilson tweeted out (as an apparent "prank") Texas Rangers C/1B Mike Napoli's phone number. There were the quotes about the off season, and his former team that put some fans on edge. Is him being a jerk enough reason to boo him? I'm not sure. A lot of professional athletes are also professional jerks, and being a jerk is not an automatic ticket to boo-ing. The one thing that diminishes him for me is the "ball flipping" incident. That sign of disrespect is not enough for me to boo him, but was enough for me to not be heartbroken (or even particularly sad) when he left the team. Was it stupid? Yes. Did he probably regret it the second he did it? Most likely. Did it have any real effect on him going to the Angels? No. When any "star" athlete leaves a team, there is always going to be a reaction, a backlash, if you will. The fact that he went to the division rivals doesn't help, but in my eyes, that doesn't black out the fact that he left because the Texas Rangers let him.
At this point, you're probably thinking something along the lines of "Well, they didn't want to pay him the selfish amount of money he wanted! He wasn't that good! He thought he was worth too much!"
Professional athletes, as a whole, are selfish. You can't be a pro athlete without being selfish, to some degree. I'm not saying this as a condemnation, but simply as a statement of fact. As charismatic, as giving, as community-oriented as a player may be, if they are in an elite group, then they are still making more money than I would ever hope to see. Again, CJ Wilson (and his agent, and whatever sources he consulted) felt that he was worth more than the Rangers were willing to pay. This is something that happens all the time. Josh Hamilton (a perennial fan favourite) is most likely going to ask for an extremely large amount of money come contract negotiations. Will the fans boo him if/when he plays at RBiA not in a Rangers uniform? Only time will tell, but I have a feeling the answer would be no.
Personally, I hope CJ Wilson loses tonight. I hope the Rangers' offense crushes every single pitch he throws and thus works to the Angels' provenly awful bullpen early. Do I hope this because he's CJ Wilson? No. I want this because it's a game, and I'm a fan. I want my team to win.
Boo CJ Wilson, or not. That doesn't change the fact that this is one of the more stellar pitching matchups that we, as fans, will see all season. No matter what the crowd does, this will be a fantastic game.
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Fun with Numbers: More Questions.
When attempting to weight wins by using an outside economic value, there really two options that you can choose from: revenue or budget. Simply put, if you were to use revenue, you'd be weighting wins by what they mean to the community. If you use budget, then you are weighting wins by what they mean to the university.
The problem lies in trying to decide which one of these is more accurate. Is, say, the 10 wins you get out of $X million v 40 wins out of $Y million a better factor than $X million 10 wins brings in v $Y million 40 wins brings in? Or would the true test be to see how both numbers compare?
Currently, it looks like I'm going to need to recalculate win percentage for the Big 12 in 2010-2011, since that is what I can find revenue numbers for.
Honestly, I'm wondering how empirical this can be. How much does prior success point to future profit? How much does a year of failure (Texas, Texas Tech, 2012 A&M for examples) affect the revenue/budget of the next year?
I'm probably going to be working on this all summer, even if it is to just look at it in the end and decide that there is no accurate way to determine such things.
The problem lies in trying to decide which one of these is more accurate. Is, say, the 10 wins you get out of $X million v 40 wins out of $Y million a better factor than $X million 10 wins brings in v $Y million 40 wins brings in? Or would the true test be to see how both numbers compare?
Currently, it looks like I'm going to need to recalculate win percentage for the Big 12 in 2010-2011, since that is what I can find revenue numbers for.
Honestly, I'm wondering how empirical this can be. How much does prior success point to future profit? How much does a year of failure (Texas, Texas Tech, 2012 A&M for examples) affect the revenue/budget of the next year?
I'm probably going to be working on this all summer, even if it is to just look at it in the end and decide that there is no accurate way to determine such things.
Fun with Numbers: What Exactly is the Worth of a Win?
Over on OurDailyBears I've done some huge agglomerated standings for the Big 12, the point of which was to show the overall strength of the member school's athletics program. Baylor topped that out at (as of the publication date) an astounding .750 win percentage across 6 sports, which was no surprise to those of us who follow the Big 12 and Baylor in particular.
I've been thinking since then, however, about exactly how accurate those standings are. Oh, they're completely accurate from a mathematical point of view, but there are some flaws.
We all know that, especially in Texas, football is king. It gets the most money, it gains the most money, and it rules schedules and pocketbooks from September to January. Yet its 13 game season gets dwarfed in the 30-40 games played by both basketball teams and the 50 or so games played by baseball, not to mention volleyball and softball. Agglomerated standings such as mine tend to reflect a program's success in the "little" sports more than football, simply because they comprise the largest part of the whole.
How does one go about rectifying this? How can you make football appear as large in the standings as it appears in the national consciousness? How can you truly calculate the "worth" of each win?
I've been thinking since then, however, about exactly how accurate those standings are. Oh, they're completely accurate from a mathematical point of view, but there are some flaws.
We all know that, especially in Texas, football is king. It gets the most money, it gains the most money, and it rules schedules and pocketbooks from September to January. Yet its 13 game season gets dwarfed in the 30-40 games played by both basketball teams and the 50 or so games played by baseball, not to mention volleyball and softball. Agglomerated standings such as mine tend to reflect a program's success in the "little" sports more than football, simply because they comprise the largest part of the whole.
How does one go about rectifying this? How can you make football appear as large in the standings as it appears in the national consciousness? How can you truly calculate the "worth" of each win?
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