Saturday, May 5, 2012

Fun with Numbers: More Questions.

When attempting to weight wins by using an outside economic value, there really two options that you can choose from: revenue or budget. Simply put, if you were to use revenue, you'd be weighting wins by what they mean to the community. If you use budget, then you are weighting wins by what they mean to the university.

The problem lies in trying to decide which one of these is more accurate. Is, say, the 10 wins you get out of $X million v 40 wins out of $Y million a better factor than $X million 10 wins brings in v $Y million 40 wins brings in? Or would the true test be to see how both numbers compare?

Currently, it looks like I'm going to need to recalculate win percentage for the Big 12 in 2010-2011, since that is what I can find revenue numbers for.

Honestly, I'm wondering how empirical this can be. How much does prior success point to future profit? How much does a year of failure (Texas, Texas Tech, 2012 A&M for examples) affect the revenue/budget of the next year?

I'm probably going to be working on this all summer, even if it is to just look at it in the end and decide that there is no accurate way to determine such things.

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