Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The Winter of Our Discontent: Josh Hamilton


Joshua Holt Hamilton has been a Texas Ranger for five years. He has been described in this time as "exciting" "frustrating"  "a transcendent baseball talent" "an addict" and "incredible," among other, more precise  descriptions.  He once hit four home runs in a game - tying the major league record, something that is more rare than a perfect game - and then he saw a total of 8 pitches while going 0-for-3 in a one game playoff situation against a team some call the "Rangers East." He is living a story that some would call miraculous, but the very nature of it causes him to be questioned every day in the echo-chamber of the internet.

Hamilton is also a free agent as of last Friday night and is rumoured to be looking for a contract in the "insane" range. At this point it is fairly obvious that the Rangers are not looking to re-sign Hamilton, and an anonymous member of the front office supposedly said that even if he were looking to play for free, they didn't want him back. Yet, earlier this very season, there were clamors of "Pay that man!" and many a post bemoaning what would become of the offense if he wasn't sitting in that familiar third spot in the lineup.



In April and May, Hamilton looked to be having a career year. Baseball Tonight and the like were proclaiming him the Triple Crown wearer after just two weeks, and people started wondering if there were records to be broken in his future. He hit 21 home runs in just 47 games, including that magical night in Baltimore (Tangent: Baltimore. Things are always weird for the Rangers in Baltimore), and had more RBI than we knew what to do with. His more esoteric stats spoke of greatness, and people started whispering words like "MVP."

In May, I wrote something about CJ Wilson and included a bit about Hamilton that now looks quite amusing. When put on paper, their situations seem quite similar - valuable player hits free agency, wants the most money he can, and does something to offend his former fanbase. That something for Hamilton started in June and solidified in July. I mentioned that he hit 21 homers in 47 games. He finished the year with 43 in 162.

Now, I honestly feel that batting average is the catch-all of stats and therefore only good for looking at the most general of pictures, so let's take a look at Hamilton's OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages, a quick way to look at a player's general offensive effectiveness) across the season. April and May were both above 1, which is honestly something ridiculous. June and July, though? .754 and .607. To put that in perspective, Michael Young never had an OPS below .630. According to fWAR, Michael Young was the worst qualified position player in all of baseball this season.  The fans were told that Hamilton was quitting chewing tobacco, and that this was messing with his plate discipline, and while his OPS did recover a bit from this .400+ drop, it never returned to the MVP level the beginning of the season teased us with, and it certainly never recovered to the level of being worth 7/$30.

Despite the slumping and the tobacco and the three-pitch strike-outs, the "Ranger Nation/Republic" at large didn't completely sour on Hamilton until late September when he did this in the last game of the season, the game for the American League West title.
From the incomparable Jeff Sullivan
This was after taking himself out of a game and going back to Texas for a week because of eye issues supposedly related to over use of caffeinated beverages and energy drinks. If Hamilton had caught this pop-up to shallow center, the inning would have been over. The Rangers and A's would have been tied, and it is possible that the Rangers would have still been in the playoffs today. 

Of course, that is all speculation. This error simply encapsulates the way Hamilton looked both at the plate and in the field the last month of games. From the fan's perspective, he looked checked-out, lacking #want, unfocused, lost. It's easy to go from there and say "Josh Hamilton was only thinking about the money" but that's not what this post is about. 

I am positive that whichever team lays down the cash (and years) for his talent will be rewarded, at least at the first. Playing in a new environment will provide new platform for his undeniable talent (unless he pulls a Albert Pujols) but I don't see it continuing for long. It might actually be the best thing for the Texas Rangers that Miggy Cabrera Triple Crowned and Hamilton alienated his fanbase in the game 162.

Josh Hamilton is an enigma, an incredibly talented player who had the chance to be one of the most fondly remembered members of the Texas Rangers. Even though his time here in Texas ended ignominiously we were lucky, as both casual fans and die-hard-statisticians, to see him play at the top of his game. But for now, farewell and Godspeed, Mr. Hamilton.


Notes: The GIF credit goes to the incomparable Jeff Sullivan. "Josh Hamilton is an enigma" is thanks to John Leftwich, as is the fact that this thing actually came into fruition. Thanks to Emily and Chris Fittz for proofreading and editing and keeping my rambling sentences from tangling me up and causing me to trip over myself. 
OPS from ESPN Stats and Info. 
Baseball-Reference was of much use. 
FanGraphs wants my money and they'll probably get it soon. 


No comments:

Post a Comment